Real-time data indicates recovery slowed in August

The pace of the recovery of the Irish economy from Covid-19 restrictions slowed substantially in August.

That’s according to stockbroker Davy which said the situation is indicted by real-time data for the month.

In a note to investors, chief economist Conall MacCoille said the Government’s decision to delay the phase four re-opening of the economy meant restrictions on pubs and restaurants were not lifted on August 4 as planned.

Further restrictions were also announced later in the month on August 18.

As a result, Mr McCoille said, Ireland’s position in the Oxford University Covid-19 Government Response Stringency Index has risen sharply. 

He said daily credit/debit card spending also fell by 4% in August and reductions in the number of Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) claimants have slowed.

Measures of consumer confidence have also faltered this month on fears of a second Covid outbreak, he said.

Mobility data gathered by Apple and Google also illustrates how business and travel restrictions have had a negative impact on activity.

One exception is the housing market data though which shows price expectations are on the rise, Mr McCoille said.

New data due to be published on Friday is expected to indicate that the Irish economy experienced an unprecedented contraction in the second quarter of the year.

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